Conflict, political accountability, and aid / Paul Collier.

economic&political bookfair2015

Includes bibliographical references and index.

Cover; Half Title; Title Page; Copyright Page; Table of Contents; Figures; Tables; Introduction; Violent conflict; The political economy of democracy; Part I: Violent conflict; Causes; 1. Greed and grievance in civil war; 1.1 Introduction; 1.2 Rebellion: approaches and measures; 1.2.1 Preferences, perceptions, and opportunities; 1.2.2 Proxies for opportunity; 1.2.3 Proxying objective grievances; 1.2.4 Scale effects; 1.3 Regression analysis; 1.4 Robustness checks; 1.5 Interpretation and conclusion; Appendix 1.1: A simple migration model; Appendix 1.2: Calculating the marginal probabilities. Appendix 1.3: Data sourcesNotes; References; 2. Beyond greed and grievance; 2.1 Introduction; 2.2 The economic theory of civil war; 2.3 Data and method; 2.4 Results; Overview and descriptive statistics; Core results; Robustness checks; Implications; 2.5 Conclusion; Appendix 2.1: Data sources; Notes; References; Duration; 3. On the duration of civil war; 3.1 Introduction; 3.2 The duration of conflict in the literature on civil war; 3.3 Data and econometric model; 3.4 Empirical results; 3.5 Conclusion; Appendix 3.1; Appendix 3.2: Data sources; Notes; References; Post-conflict. 4. Post-conflict risks4.1 Introduction; 4.2 Post-conflict risks: current policy and recent research; Current policy models; Theory and quantification; 4.3 Methodology and data; 4.4 The hazard generated by conflict legacy; Temporal effects; Economic influences; Political variables; Social variables; Military variables; Comparing two packages; 4.5 Conclusion and implications; Appendix 4.1: Data sources; Notes; References; 5. Military expenditure in post-conflict societies; 5.1 Introduction; 5.2 Military spending as a signal; 5.3 Empirical testing of the effect of military spending post-conflict. ApproachResults; Interpretation; A simulation; 5.4 Conclusion; Appendix 5.1: Data sources; References; 6. Aid, policy, and growth in post-conflict societies; 6.1 Introduction; 6.2 The pattern of post-conflict recovery; 6.3 Aid during recovery; 6.4 Policy priorities during recovery; 6.5 Conclusion; Appendix 6.1: Data sources; Notes; References; 7. Post-conflict monetary reconstruction; 7.1 The government decision; The model; Equilibrium; Dynamics; Responses during conflict; Learning; Post-conflict responses; 7.2 Empirical analysis; Money demand; The government's choice of seigniorage. 7.3 Post-conflict assistanceAid and the government choice of seigniorage; Aid and money demand; Applications to post-conflict monetary reconstruction; 7.4 Conclusion; Appendix 7.1; Notes; References; Costs; 8. On economic causes of civil war; 8.1 Introduction; 8.2 Analytic framework; 8.3 Results; 8.4 Conclusion; Appendix 8.1: Data sources; Note; References; 9. Unintended consequences; 9.1 Introduction; 9.2 Modelling military expenditure; The need for security; The lobbying of interested parties; The financial resources of government; 9.3 An implication: neighbourhood arms races.

Paul Collier's contributions to development economics, and in regard to Africa in particular, have marked him out as one of the most influential commentators of recent times. His research has centred upon the causes and consequences of civil war, the effects of aid, and the problems of democracy in low-income and natural-resource-rich societies. His work has also enjoyed substantial policy impact, having seen him sit as a senior adviser to Tony Blair's Commission on Africa and addressed the General Assembly of the United Nations This collection of Collier's major writings, with assist.